Hopes that a new democratic and corruption-free Ukraine will arise out of the ashes of the conflict have been publicised by its supporters on the left by pointing to the popular mobilisation of many Ukrainians in support of the war effort.

Once again, however, this is not a new phenomenon and does not sustain the argument that a different, more democratic and less corrupt state will arise.  Already there is mounting evidence of this enthusiasm waning; understandable given the effects of the war but still damning for the hopes of the war’s supporters.  For the purposes of our longer perspective, it is confirmation of previous experience.

Ukrainians have participated before in a number of very large mobilisations against their exiting political regimes in favour of democracy and against corruption.  This was the case in the Orange revolution in 2004 and the Maidan uprising in 2014.  In the first case the new regime installed proved to be more corrupt than the one it took over from, and the new regime installed in 2014 quickly became more unpopular than the one it replaced.

In both cases popular participation did not mean popular leadership, never mind one led by any sort of working class formation.  In 2014 it was far-right forces that formed the vanguard of its organisation, with western supported NGOs providing much of the veneer of a progressive movement.  The United States helped fund these NGOs and the Maidan protests that year provided the occasion for exposure of its political interference, through recordings its officials discussing who should, should not, and subsequently would be in the government.  This interference continued at the highest levels thereafter, so that Joe Biden, as US Vice President, boasted of his having more phone calls with the Ukrainian President than with his wife.  The war, and reliance on western arms, has simply made clear to even the meanest intellect the client relationship that developed.

Top-down manipulation, involving popular support and mobilisation often with progressive illusions in their enterprise–yet with oligarchic and imperialist objectives–have now taken the form of a war provoked by prospective membership of NATO.  Just like the previous mobilisations, except much more quickly and with much greater effect, these popular movements have led to bitter disappointment.  Today this results in military offensives that cannot succeed, except in killing and mutilating hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in uniform.

Just as the working class was exploited by oligarchs before the war, protected by the Ukrainian state that was often their direct instrument, so it is working class men, in the main, who are dying and being mutilated in the war, although increasingly women are being recruited.  Just as before the war, the repeated hopes of many Ukrainians and desire for a more democratic and prosperous future is being dashed.

There is mounting evidence of the Ukrainian state having to press-gang men into the army and of many attempting to avoid it by leaving the country, joining millions who have already fled.  More Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to carry out suicidal orders or deserting.  Reports from many countries indicate that the refugees that have left may decide to stay away, rather than return to a war ravaged country and to a state once again promising probity and democracy.  There is particular concern about the demographic future of the country, with so many women and children having left, so that the pre-war population decline now threatens to become a ‘catastrophe‘.

The current offensive pushed by western imperialism and agreed by the Zelensky regime has little chance of succeeding in any significant way, admitted in secret US documents placed on the internet. This calls into question the whole initiative and the sacrifice of lives it is requiring, although not for western imperialism whose prime objective is not to take territory but attrition of the Russian forces and weakening of the Russian state.  It is openly admitted and reported, that the objective of some NATO members is to ‘break Russian power and to bring Ukraine into NATO’ with Poland hoping ‘that Rus­sia might even­tu­ally break apart’. (Financial Times 11 July)

Just as Ukraine was used, with the willing support of much of its ruling class, to support western imperialism by pushing for NATO membership, precipitating the war, so it continues to be propelled forward by Western arms and hollow promises of victory from the Ukrainian regime.  Just as the Ukrainian state lied about the security to be won by pursuing membership so its people are being fed lies about NATO weapons delivering victory.  Lies that the pro-war western ‘left’ endorses through its support for the war, support for the objectives of the Ukrainian state, and support for the western provision of arms that facilitate continuation of the war with all its casualties, but which will not bring the promised triumph.

Since the west has run out of conventional artillery shells of the required calibre it is now supplying cluster bombs and long range missiles, which again this ‘left’ must endorse or, like its ruling classes, have to admit that its policy has been an utter failure, one that hundreds of thousands have paid for with their lives.

This ‘left’ cannot admit it supports a proxy war by western imperialism even as both Ukraine and imperialism admits that western weapons are vital to the war effort.  Support for an imperialist war in which millions of workers have been casualties in one way or another is not something that can be admitted as a ‘mistake’, perhaps something to be forgotten or worse, rationalised and theorised for future such wars.  Just as the seeds of its capitulation were planted in previous errors, so the weeds they have sprouted have grown and taken over whatever was once worthwhile.

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